Konstantin Anissimov, Executive Director at CEX.IO
The BTC/USD trading pair opened at $10,686 on Tuesday, 29th September, slightly below Monday’s open. The pair began the day on an upside course and continued that way later in the day, moving in waves. This local uptrend was observed until 15:00 UTC when a new hourly candlestick took the pair lower to the day’s open in a moment. The following slight rebound took the pair to the hour’s close at $10,790. Minutes later, the pair broke lower below $10,670 but finished the hour with a long lower wick, a short upper wick, and a small bearish body, forming a hanging man with a close at $10,703.
The hanging man on the hourly timeframe was a good foundation for an upside reversal in the evening hours, and the reversal followed. At 18:00 UTC, the price began edging higher and closed the hour $58 above the open at $10,761. Less pronounced but still bullish, three hourly candlesticks followed up on that spike until 22:00 UTC. In the 22nd hour, the price paused at a local resistance formed around the day’s high. However, in the day’s closing hour, Bitcoin broke above the level to as high as $10,890 and closed the day at $10,875, adding $76 in one hour – the most progress in one hour on the day. In total, BTC/USD added 1.61% in Tuesday’s session.
ETH/USD moved slightly down at Tuesday’s open, slipping toward $352 at 6:00 UTC. Then a local upside move began, mimicking Bitcoin’s dynamics through to 14:00 UTC, after which a corrective move followed. In the hours when Bitcoin slipped to the day’s new lows, Ethereum showed more resistance to the downside pressure, holding above $352 at 16:00 – 17:00 UTC. Eventually, ETH/USD finished the 17th hour of the day in the positive zone, closing at $355.5.
Later, following Bitcoin’s upside move, ETH/USD began edging back to the 0.5 Fibonacci level positioned at $358.5, starting at 19:00 and through to the end of the hour. In the next few hours, the pair was modestly climbing up to above $360, with the last hourly marubozu candlestick closing the day at $361, which translated into 1.86% growth for ETH/USD on Tuesday.
What to expect later this week
Bitcoin appears stagnant in the range of $10,980 – $10,720, with the mid-September sideways channel limiting Bitcoin’s further upside progress. However, Bitcoin is sitting above the 50-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart and the 20-day simple moving average, which is positive for the buyers. The local resistance at above $11,100, formed on 19th September, and the 50-day SMA are the most prominent barriers Bitcoin will have to overcome to pave the way to $11,625.
With the positive dynamics for Bitcoin in the past few days, we are eligible to expect a continuation of the upside move later this week. Because the 50-day SMA is likely to have a major impact on Bitcoin’s further price action, traders should pay close attention to it.
Ethereum appears to be following Bitcoin’s price action to a large extent; therefore, those trading ETH/USD should keep track of the Bitcoin market situation. Presently, the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the mid-September lows are putting pressure on Ether, limiting its upside retracement. The ETH/USD pair seems locked in a limited price range between $351.5 and $364.50. However, with Bitcoin advancing higher on its ongoing uptrend, Ethereum can rise to the $378 daily resistance level, which is presently a major resistance level.
With the positive dynamics in Bitcoin and the modestly developing recovery in Ethereum, traders can count upon Ethereum going higher this week – as high as $378. But the closest goal at hand for Ethereum will be to capitalize above the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $358.5, which will be a viable confirmation of further Ethereum gains.
Executive Director at CEX.IO