Autumn typically starts with a decline in Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market. What triggers this negative trend and can we expect changes in 2024? EXMO.com CEO Serhiy Zhdanov analyses the current situation.
Historically, September has been the worst month for Bitcoin. Since 2013, the first cryptocurrency has ended the month with losses in 70% of cases, with an average drawdown of -4.78% over these years.
Analysts link this trend to several factors.
First, increased trading activity plays a significant role. Investors return from their “summer vacations” and seek to rebalance their portfolios after a period of market calm, which causes substantial price fluctuations.
Second, September marks the end of the fiscal year. Institutional investors review their assets to decide whether to sell some or buy new ones and the SEC often initiates actions against crypto companies during this time.
Third, September has long earned a reputation for poor results, and this trend now feeds on itself. It generates fear and anxiety among investors, prompting them to sell.
A few additional factors will come into play this year, which we will analyse below.
Reasons for this year’s crypto volatility in September
The first month of autumn is highly likely to be one of the most volatile months of the year. During this period, a convergence of various economic and political factors offers traders excellent opportunities for active trading and investors the chance to rebalance and diversify their portfolios.
September’s economic calendar is packed with important dates. All eyes in the crypto market will be on U.S. consumer inflation and the Federal Reserve’s meeting. The Consumer Price Index has already slowed to 2.5%, encouraging the Fed to cut rates more aggressively.
The meeting is scheduled for 18th September. Traders are no longer just waiting for a rate cut but wondering by how much. A 0.5% cut is widely discussed, but Bank of America notes that the most likely scenario is a 0.25% cut at each meeting starting in September, with the pace slowing to 0.25% per quarter beginning in March 2025.
Another crucial factor is the U.S. presidential election, scheduled for early November. Pre-election years are usually favourable for the market, but volatility spikes noticeably in the short term, a few months before the event. Trump’s victory would favour the cryptocurrency market, as he actively supports the crypto industry in his campaign speeches. There is hope that he might provoke changes, particularly in the SEC.
Another factor this year is the massive Bitcoin sell-off by miners. They actively sold the first cryptocurrency throughout the summer, and as of 11th September, they had sold 30,000 BTC worth $1.71 billion in just 72 hours. Such significant inflows of Bitcoin into the market amplify price fluctuations and contribute to the depreciation of the first cryptocurrency.
Will Bitcoin end this September with another decline?
According to analysts at EXMO.com, this year’s trend of negative September results is likely to stay the same, as seen in the first half of the month. However, it could also end with a flat movement – the price will move sideways without a clear upward or downward trend. Bitcoin has been in this position since March 2024, and September will likely be a prelude to a sharp move in October. Historically, October is considered the best month for cryptocurrencies, earning it the nickname “Uptober.”
Bearish investors and traders are talking about Bitcoin dropping to $40,000, but markets often move in the opposite direction of crowd expectations. This was evident in November 2022, when everyone expected Bitcoin to fall to $10,000, which never happened. Therefore, September is likely to be one of the last opportunities to buy Bitcoin on EXMO.com at attractive prices.
Market participants are actively preparing for the October surge, and according to CryptoQuant data, around 236,000 BTC have been withdrawn from crypto exchanges over the past two months. These volumes are not intended for sale anytime soon.
How to prepare for Uptober
A simple calculation: when Bitcoin’s price rises in October, it’s best to have as much BTC in your wallet as possible. It is possible to accumulate them even without trading through EXMO.com’s passive income program, Earn.
The program offers one of the highest rates for this asset in the market: investors can earn up to 5% APY on Bitcoin and start earning rewards with just 0.001 BTC in their account! Earn’s mechanics are highly flexible, allowing one to choose from four subscription periods and three packages tailored to client needs.
Moreover, until the end of September, all new users of the EXMO.com platform can start an exclusive Earn subscription with a 1,000% APY on BTC for one day! Don’t miss out – take advantage of this opportunity.
The bottom line
The beginning of autumn is traditionally considered a challenging period for Bitcoin. However, in 2024, many other factors will influence the price of the first cryptocurrency, which could either strengthen or weaken this trend.
Investors are advised to carefully analyse the market, stay updated with the latest news events and make informed decisions.
Disclaimer: This is a sponsored article. The views and opinions presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinCheckup. The content of this article should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research before deciding to buy, sell or transfer any crypto assets.
