Konstantin Anissimov, Executive Director at CEX.IO
BTC/USD
BTC/USD opened the trading session of 25th February at 49,676, and it closed above 50,500 in the first hour. Later on, until 09:00 UTC, BTC/USD was going sideways, keeping for the most time between the level of the session open and 50,500. BTC/USD took a slight dive to 49,000 between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC, with the hour’s lowest point being at 48,700 as per the CEX.IO pricing, but rebounded rather quickly in the next hour and continued upwards until 13:00 UTC, getting to 51,500.
A shooting-star hourly candlestick reached up to 52,168 between 13:00 and 14:00 UTC but created some selling stimulus, which eventually led to a bearish intraday price wave from 14:00 to 22:00 UTC. After closing the 17:00 hourly candlestick below the 50-period hourly simple moving average at 49,592, BTC/USD continued sideways until 20:00 UTC. Between 20:00 and 22:00 UTC, the pair travelled down to the 4.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 48,051.
BTC/USD has stagnated after rebounding above 48,000 and may need more buying volumes to break above the upper boundary at 51,000 of this flat corridor. The pair is still on the bullish course, and the buying sentiment is still very present. And the buying volumes placed around the 4.236 Fibonacci retracement level will likely play a key role in creating the necessary bullish momentum for BTC/USD to break above 51,000 and head back to 58,000, which then will be a rather clear target.
In case a breakdown to 46,000 takes place, there will be more substantial buying volumes that may lead to a double-bottom pattern that may get hard to break for the sellers. We thus continue to keep a moderately bullish stance on BTC/USD, with the current target at 57,111.
ETH/USD
ETH/USD started the trading session of 25th February at 1,628.1 and, after climbing to 1,650 in the first hour continued sideways until 17:00 UTC. In that time, ETH/USD was mainly keeping between 1,600 and 1,650, and in the hour of 17:00 the selling volumes managed to push and close the pair below 1,600, which had been unsuccessfully attempted twice before in the day.
After breaking down below 1,600, ETH/USD continued slipping down at a low angle until 21:00 UTC, but at that point the selling pressure grew once again and drove the ETH/USD treading pair below 1,550.
These downside dynamics still do not put an end to the ETH/USD uptrend, since the pair’s current low on the daily timeframe is well above the previous one at 1,100.3 based on the CEX.IO pricing. And the pair still keeps above the 50-day simple moving average, which is another sign of an unfinished uptrend.
A breakdown below the 50-day SMA can increase the selling pressure behind ETH/USD and increase the chances of a downside reversal. However, there are going to be substantial buying volumes placed in the area of 1,440 – 1,500, which should create some countertrade momentum that might prevent ETH/USD from going yet lower for a while.
