Galaxy Research Cuts Clarity Act Passage Odds to 50%. Here’s Why 

Key highlights:

• The CLARITY Act’s odds of passing in 2026 have significantly fallen. 
• Galaxy Research says that there is only a 50% chance for the bill to become law this year. 
• The Senate’s tight schedule and the existing policy disagreements remain the major hurdle. 

Ahead of the critical markup hearing in July, the hopes for the long-awaited passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 are fading. According to Galaxy Research, the odds of the 2026 passage are now at just 50%.

This significant decline in the odds highlights the prolonged delays in passing the market structure bill. Despite multiple hearings in the Senate, the crypto bill has made no recent progress, raising concerns about its potential passage.

What’s behind the dropping odds of the CLARITY Act passage?

While all eyes are on the July 17 markup hearing, Galaxy Research remains less optimistic about the CLARITY Act’s near-term progress. The research firm has recently reduced the odds of the crypto bill becoming law this year to 50%. This marks a notable decline from the previous odds at 60%. The statement read,

“We are lowering our estimate that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% on June 5. The downgrade is primarily related to the calendar, not the substance of the bill. The recess is scheduled to begin at the end of July.”

Notably, Galaxy Research’s concern is based on the Senate’s legislative timeline rather than the crypto bill’s political support. Alex Thorn noted that the Senate’s schedule is becoming increasingly tight, with no floor vote in sight. Although discussions surrounding the bill are actively taking place, the chances of its final passage are thus shrinking. The head noted, “The absence of news is itself the news.”

On May 14, the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee with 19-0 bipartisan support. But since then, the crypto bill has lacked any progress, with the lawmakers failing to release a single, unified version. Also, there is no official confirmation about the potential full Senate vote on the bill.

The research firm believes that if the bill needs to be signed into law before the August recess, Senate Majority Leader John Thune should schedule a floor vote in early July. If not, the market structure bill could again be delayed until September, when midterm election pressures could sideline the legislation. This could bring further delays to the CLARITY Act’s final approval. Thorn stated, 

“In our view, Senate Majority Leader Thune needs to announce floor time by early July at the latest, possibly during the July 4 recess, with the vote itself occurring before the August recess. Absent a scheduling announcement on that timeline, the path slips to September, which runs directly into the midterm dynamics we have warned about, when controversial votes become very hard to schedule.”

Source: Polymarket

On Polymarket, the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 have declined to 44%, marking a severe fall of 21%. This indicates that the overall market remains skeptical about the crypto bill’s imminent passage.

Key policy disputes need to be addressed

Apart from the Senate’s busy schedule, existing policy disagreements are also contributing to the current uncertainty surrounding the bill’s passage. For example, some of the senators are calling for more stringent ethical standards. This comes after the presentation of a similar amendment by Senator Chris Van Hollen, which was later rejected in the committee. Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have also called for stricter ethics rules.

Recently, a group of enforcement agencies raised concerns over certain provisions of the CLARITY Act. They believe that the market structure bill has loopholes, which could restrict tackling growing crypto crimes. In addition, some lawmakers advocated changes to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA). They want to include rules to strengthen anti-money laundering (AML) and other security measures to protect blockchain developers and node operators.