Key takeaways:
- According to Willy Woo, we have never exited the bull market, instead, we are in a reaccumulation phase of the bull run that started at the end of 2020
- Woo predicts the surge to $157,000 once the current phase ends, which could ultimately lead to $350,000 Bitcoin when the squeeze on the “accumulation band” occurs
- On-chain metrics remain strong, with Bitcoin mining still comfortably in the green and MRVR as well as Puel Multiple pointing to a healthy market
In a recent episode of The Pomp Podcast by Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano, prominent crypto analyst Willy Woo shared his insights and explained why he believes that Bitcoin could climb over the $150,000 price mark once the bull trend resumes.
Bitcoin bull market never stopped, we are in the re-accumulation phase
Despite the 50% drop from its all-time high earlier in the year, Willy Woo is convinced that we are still in a Bitcoin bull market. “There’s no mistaking this. We’ve got X-ray vision on what the investors are doing, and it’s bullish whilst price is sliding downwards,” Willy Woo explained and added, “I think the next major event is when the fundamentals squeeze price action, and we break out of this what I’d call re-accumulation band right in the middle of a bull market.”
“This is a bull market. There’s no mistaking this. We’ve got X-ray vision on what the investors are doing, and it’s bullish whilst price is sliding downwards.”
Willy Woo, on-chain analyst
Willy Woo’s claims are supported by technical analysis conducted by CoinMetrics on past halving epochs of BTC price history. In each subsequent halving, the price of BTC went up by as much as 20x and there is nothing preventing the cycle to repeat itself. Willy Woo admits his analysis is not based on some particular events that are likely to occur in the near term but instead uses on-chain as “a map to try and get a grasp of what exactly is happening in the market.”
Image source: CoinMetrics
Furthermore, according to Willy Woo’s own models, it is very likely that that the push into the $250,000 to $350,000 range happens once the squeeze is put on the current “accumulation band”. At the end of the last year, Woo shared his bullish predictions on 2021, banking on the bullish feedback loop to carry the price to new heights. He predicted $200,000 as a conservative estimate and settled on $300,000 as a more realistic number for BTC to reach by the end of the year.
Fundamentals remain strong despite the price drop
One of the most crucial pieces of data when gauging the BTC market price is its relation to mining costs. The current price of $31,866 is far away from the average production cost of $22,000 and even further from the average electricity cost of $12,400. If BTC price would plunge this low, the majority of retail miners would be forced to close shop.
According to Tone Vays, a blockchain consultant and researcher, some better connected BTC miners are still able to mine at $5,000 to $6,000 per coin. This doesn’t mean that the price will crash, it just means that Bitcoin price has a lot of room for dropping further down, without making BTC mining unprofitable.
Additional market metrics, such as MRVR (market value to realized value) and Puel Multiple (the relation between BTC mined in a day and 365-day simple average) are showing encouraging results.
