Cryptocurrency Analysis

27th January: BTC/USD Breaks below 31,000, ETH/USD Dips below 1,300

Konstantin Anissimov, Executive Director at CEX.IO


BTC/USD began the trading session of 27th January, Wednesday, at 32,501 as per the exchange rate on CEX.IO. From the day’s start the pair began slipping down with a determination to break down below the 2.618 Fibonacci retracement level positioned at 31,000. The pair was trending down in a steadily going downside move with two flag formations clearly visible on the 15-minute timeframe between 06:00 and 08:00 UTC and between 09:00 and 11:00 UTC.

BTC/USD was starting the 11th hourly candlestick of the day at 31,556 and was in a good position for a attacking the 2.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which it successfully did, closing the hourly candlestick at 30,724 on the 4-hour timeframe as well. The move was the second successful breakdown since 21st January, but this time there was no hammer on the 4-hour timeframe to pull the price back, and it was starting to look like a proper breakdown that would not be retraced.

Between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC, the BTC/USD trading pair edged a few paces up at the close of the hourly candlestick but remained well under 31,000 at the close. At 13:00 UTC, the pair continued the downswing with another bearish candlestick and fell once more in the hour between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC to 29,600, with the lower wick touching the 50-day SMA for the first time since 9th October 2020. The subsequent bounce took it up to 30,654 with the upper wick reaching up to 31,000. After that another downswing drove the pair below 30,000 and to a close of 29,750 between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC.

The breakdown below 31,000 is an important and highly anticipated stepping stone to lower price regions and a continuation of this downside corrective move. It opens the path to the region of 18,500 –20,500, where big buying volumes will be concentrated by the time the BTC/USD trading pair reaches that price range.

Presently, with the breakdown below 31,000 we are eligible to expect further downside dynamics until the specified price levels. But those might be expected to be attained in a somewhat medium term of up to six months. And, speaking of a less distant future, we expect the price to capitalise at 29,500 by the end of the week of 25th January.


ETH/USD opened the trading session of 27th January at 1,367.3 as per the exchange rate on CEX.IO. The pair instantly began trending down, finding a resting point at 1,300 at 03:00 UTC. The pair moved sideways in the next couple hours and fell to 1,288 between 05:00 and 06:00 UTC. After a couple hours of sideways fluctuations between 06:00 and 08:00 UTC, ETH/USD took another dive to 1,261.3.

Another two bullish hourly candlesticks between 09:00 and 11:00 UTC made up a little flag formation before another dive to 1,222 took place between 11:00 and 15:00 UTC. A sharp spike that happened in the next hours retraced the losses of the four previous hours, but another downswing between 16:00 and 19:00 UTC took ETH/USD to 1,230. Between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC the pared some of the losses, closing the hourly candlestick at 1,266.3.

The ETH/USD uptrend is getting weaker, with the new high of 25th October just an inch above the previous one. If these dynamics continue, presently going uptrend may be halted by a flat trend for a couple of weeks. Presently, an intraday downswing to 1,165 looks to be a likely target level for the rest of the week of 25th January, which can then be a local turning point to send the ETH/USD trading pair higher, which will be a clear indication of a beginning flat trend.