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12th January: BTC/USD Rebounds to 36,000 and Turns Back Down, ETH/USD Repeats Bitcoin’s Graphic Pattern


BTC/USD began the trading on 12th January at 35,468, according to the exchange rate at CEX.IO. In the first two hours, the pair edged down to 34,000. Then, starting from 03:00 UTC BTC/USD began an ascendency, which at 08:00 UTC took the pair to the 50-period simple moving average at around 35,600. The attainment of the moving average was a signal for a renewal of bearish price action, which was quickly confirmed: moving down consistently, the pair reached 32.501 in between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC.

But the downside move was not final, the pair took a rebound to above 35,000, but its further progress was denied by 20-period and 50-period SMAs interlacing at 35,000 at around 18:00 UTC. Later in the evening, BTC/USD continued downward from under 35,000.

The day’s picture shows a slightly reducing volatility. The rebound to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour timeframe and the subsequent price drop, with the picture repeating on the hourly timeframe later in the day, is a clear indication that the correction is going to be continued in the medium term.

The closest target for BTC/USD is the 2.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 31,000. Since that level has already been reached on 11 January, it will most likely not stand a second time. However, besides the 2.618 Fibonacci retracement level, the pair will also have to break the 20-day SMA on its way to lower domains. Further down the road, the 50-day SMA will be the next major target.


Starting 12th January at 1,087, ETH/USD slipped to 1,040 in between 00:00 – 02:00 UTC. A recovery followed between 03:00 and 07:00 UTC, taking ETH/USD to the region around 1,140. Faced with the 50-period simple moving average on the 4-hour timeframe, the pair continued down, starting from 08:00 UTC, to 1,020, briefly falling below 1,010, according to the exchange rate at CEX.IO.

From 14:00 to 18:00 UTC, the pair was on an upward course, rising to 1,120 at the top of the upswing and slightly above the 50-period SMA on the hourly timeframe. At 18:00 UTC, the pair began trending down, falling to 1,060 between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC.

The 50-period SMA has been crossed down by the 20-period one on the 4-hour timeframe, which is a good signal for continued downward dynamics.  However, overall Ethereum looks less bearish than Bitcoin in January 2021, which is probably due to the catching up with Bitcoin’s upside progress generated in December 2020.

Still, the downside course presently remains the likeliest in the medium term, the closest target being the 2.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 906.4. And we will most likely see it tested until the end of the week of 11th January.